28 replies
  1. Bruce D.
    Bruce D. says:

    Smash the generic software….🤑🤪😜. Concentrate on what your debt will be and then figure out what you'll need. Simple spreadsheet is probably sufficient for long term planning because you simply cannot account for the many variables in life….Pablo is king!!🐶🤴

  2. Mike Hamm
    Mike Hamm says:

    Josh- I use fidelity model and really like their program. It simulates your investments for significantly below (90%), below average (75%) and average (50%). I've met with one of their financial planners and he suggested looking at the below average model. As far as taxes in the model- you need to put in your effective tax rate- not your tax bracket. Also, you can put in different ages for social security and withdrawals. RMD's withdrawals are calculated when you turn 70 and and will now be changed to 72.

  3. S Chandler
    S Chandler says:

    Fidelity lets you set your plan in three levels of investment for the In this Market drop-down box – Average, Below Average or Significantly Below Average. If you set it other than Significantly Below Average it shows this wording the Risk Assessment section.
    Market Volatility 

    You should review your analysis assuming a significantly below average market.

    A lot can happen over the course of time. While you can't control what the market does in a given year, you can control how you prepare for the ups and downs of investing. The key is to select and maintain an asset mix for your retirement plan that's appropriate for your current age, your expected retirement age, your planning age, and your risk tolerance and diversify your holdings to help manage risk. You should run your analysis assuming a significantly below average market while planning for the potential that your investment returns may be below historic averages.

  4. Canyon Overlook
    Canyon Overlook says:

    The Fidelity retirement score uses an underperforming market. I am not sure if they have another calculator. You can choose your investment mix and choose if you will spend less, more or the same.

  5. belangp
    belangp says:

    Hi Josh. I had a question about your assumption of 3% return on bonds. The 30 year treasury yields 2.28% today. Are you assuming a mix of treasuries and corporates? I see that Vanguard's total bond index fund has a yield of 3.3%; however, the yield to maturity is only 2.3% which accounts for the bonds in the portfolio that are well above par. What's the mix you assume for your bond return?

  6. Jeff Pittman
    Jeff Pittman says:

    Vanguard tells me I'm OK just like Brenda, but all of these projections come from robo-advisor prototypes that are going to help Vanguard and Fidelity and others reduce adviser headcount and let software do it (another story). Anyway, this makes me think. I'm considering updating my will. I think I have a simple estate (never married, no kids). Will you consider doing a post about who can get by with $100 worth of DIY software (e.g. Willmaker) vs. who should talk to an estate atty? Any comments about estate attys, software, related topics much appreciated.

  7. Bob Krausen
    Bob Krausen says:

    I'd like to dig into their assumptions under the radar too. My Fidelity analysis also shows I'll be fine, even with the returns selection set to "Significantly Below Average". But…what is "Average"; "Below Average"; and finally "Significantly Below Average" in real numbers? I'll do some digging……

  8. Joe Craft
    Joe Craft says:

    Fidelity will say you will be "fine" just to make you believe you will make a lot of money so they get your account for their gain. At almost 2 basis points is ridiculous. No way do I believe that in 30 years ide have 35 million. Red flag #1. High fees really not discussed, and actually they steered the discuss6away from the fee discussion. Red flag #2. I'm going with Vanguard with a advisor for couple years then gd it on my own. The Fidelity team took our numbers and said they sent them to Chicago for the "analysis" , took couple weeks to come back.
    To good to be true I believe.

  9. Lake DualSport
    Lake DualSport says:

    Fidelity’s analysis always starts well below average return, it’s so low that it makes you wonder why you are investing. If you set it to below average return it looks much better. If you set it to average it actually looks like what you would expect. If I believed I would get the returns that show by default in Fidelity’s analysis I would just spend the money instead of investing it.

  10. Burt King
    Burt King says:

    Like you said – you dont know how the tool works. So perhaps dont offer any advice on it. They don't project on average returns – read the documentation perhaps.

  11. cutehumor
    cutehumor says:

    4.5% return on cash in 20 stock/80 portfolio made me laugh. Federal reserve won't raise interest rates to 4.5%/ if the federal reserve does it, the stock market will tank, as stock holders will flee back to cash to get that 4.5%.

  12. Gary Boring
    Gary Boring says:

    Josh, I would like your input on my social security example at 64 1530 or 70 2450. I am already retired. At 6 percent it would cost 112k to replace ss income to 70. Every fp says wait until 70. Using a 6 to 8 percent rate I calculate this would not run out until early 90's to 100. What do you think?

  13. leisure057 blank
    leisure057 blank says:

    The retirement income planner has you put in retirement date, all assets, pension, social security, you can put in bad market, lower than average market, and average market, also your state income tax rate. I put in a higher tax rate and include that in the amount of money I need, they put tax withdrawals after bucks you need, and I put the amount I need higher anyway so I try to be conservative in several ways.
    And I always underestimate each of my assets except my fidelity account

  14. Dave Boyd
    Dave Boyd says:

    I also use Fidelity's retirement planning tool and they tell you not to plan on the "average" return. The tool let's you see simulations for Significantly Below Average, Below Average and Average markets. If you read the details, Significantly Below Average has a 90% chance of being right. Below Average has a 75% chance of being right. Aveage has only a 50% chance of being right. My advisor at Fidelity always stresses to plan using the Significantly Below Average forecast.


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