Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian discusses the inverted yield curve, and the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted Monday …

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  1. Jeremy Lawrence Amadé Hill Edwards
    Jeremy Lawrence Amadé Hill Edwards says:

    El-Erian is correct that the inversion is not traditional, but he completely misinterprets the distortion coming from the co-dependency between markets and the Fed. The curve inverted AFTER Powell cut rates and while markets are pricing another 75 points this year. Previous inversions occurred BEFORE the Fed acted because the market thought the Fed was behind the curve. Thus, the nontraditional signal is actually as stronger signal of recession because it came AFTER markets had already priced in considerable dovish policy.

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  2. O z
    O z says:

    They will see a real inverted yield curve when the stock exchange index drops below reserve bank interest rate which will be some 99% index drop. When this happens Tramp will jump the wall and escape to Mexico – this is called inverted jump by the experts; in the last 50 years inverted curve always preceded inverted jump with only one exception when the president had his leg in a cast and was walking on crouches, but even then he tried really hard.
    The next stage of the cycle is when the stock exchange index falls below zero – it seems illogical but it's not so hard to predict – imagine Bezos surrounded in his mansion by angry mob of his workforce slaves, he dials 911 for help but gets a message that the number has been disconnected cause the government is bankrupt; in such circumstances he will actually pay someone to take over his business and save his life by doing so – he can even throw in a free portfolio of his penis photos to the buyer, and that's how the index may actually fall through the floor.

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  3. K K
    K K says:

    This man is a A$$…. THIS IS ONE OF THE HEALTHIEST ECONOMY ON THE PLANET.
    TO WANT A RESSION IS IRRESPONSIBLE AND NARCISSISTIC.
    GET OVER YOURSELF.

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  4. tonycodolo
    tonycodolo says:

    We are already in recession. Just have a look at the GDP. If you take out Government Spending (how can you call debt – wealth creation) we have had negative growth for about 2 years now.
    GDP = C + G + I + NX, or (consumption + government spending + investment + net exports) Its a joke at calculating how healthy the economy is.

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